We need a bounce back in the worst way and it is coming this weekend. The universe has spoken and Locksgiving is coming – and it starts in less than 24 hours!
Last week’s record, yuck, 2-3-1 against the spread.
On the season: 27-23-4 – that’s good enough for 54% ATS. Slightly profitable. Not where we want to be. Looking to get back to 60% on the year and it starts right here:
Bama -3 vs LSU- First bet I made this week. Total lay-up. For the first time in a long time, people are sleeping on the Crimson Tide. But quietly, they’ve won 6 in a row since losing to Texas. And they haven’t given up more than 21 in any of those games. Offensively, they still have challenges, but nothing will correct your offensive issues quite like facing LSU’s swiss cheese defense (ranked 74th in the country). SEC games are won with home field advantage, winning the line of scrimmage, and tenacious defense. Bama checks all those boxes this week, they win by more than 3. Lock it up!
Dolphins +2 vs Chiefs in Germany- Does it give me the warm and fuzzies betting against Patrick Mahomes as a short favorite? Absolutely not. I got burned pretty hard in the Super Bowl last year with a similar number. However, this is a different situation. Couple of factors at play here that make me want to back my own team. For 1, this is not a true road game, so those woes that perplex Miami shouldn’t really be a factor here. Also, travel advantage. Miami has been in Germany about 5 extra days, that has to count for something body clock wise. Nevermind the fact that the Chiefs offense has looked broken most of the year and they just bottomed out against the Broncos. Bounce back coming? Not necessarily. The game after a team turns the ball over 5x or more, they are 44% against the spread the following week. KC has issues. And the Dolphins are not the team you want to face in that situation. Also, Vic Fangio factor. The Dolphins DC has never record a win against Mahomes, but he has slowed him down. Fangio defenses have held Mahomes to 200 or fewer passing yards in 3 of 6 games…and totaled 10 sacks along the way. Fins up baby, lock it up!
Panthers +2.5 vs Colts- This game is the ugly duckling in a sea of beautiful ducks. But, a winner is a winner. The Colts defense is so horrendous, they’re an easy fade as a favorite. They’ve allowed 38, 39, and 37 in their last 3 games. And Gardner Minshew is TERRIBLE against the spread. 4-10 in games where the spread is 4 points or less and 3-11 in his last 14 starts. The Panthers may have found something, they have a new play caller who seemingly made Bryce Young more comfortable last week in a win…and, it’s a Frank Reich revenge game! Panthers +2.5. Lock it up!
Cowboys +3 @ Eagles- I think Philly is really good. But, I also think they’ve been playing with fire a bit these past few weeks and they’re due for a letdown. Jalen Hurts is dealing with a leg injury that has clearly impact his ability to be a factor in the run game. 27 total yards on the ground the past 2 weeks. His lowest rushing averages of the year. Something’s up. Also, Dak has historically been really good against the spread within the division. 25-10 in his career when facing an NFC East team. This is like Dallas’s Super Bowl. I think they show up big. Cowboys +3. Lock it up!
Bengals -2 vs Bills- This will be the 3rd career meeting between Burrow and Allen, the first was cancelled due to the Damar Hamlin incident and the other was a blow out in the playoffs last season. I like evidence, and I have seen no evidence that this Bills team matches up with Cincinnati. People don’t remember this because the Hamlin incident was so traumatic, but the Bengals were moving the ball with ease in that game prior to the cardiac event. More than anything, the Bills are just catching this Bengals team at a bad time – Cincy is hot. Burrow is all the way back, the defense is playing well, and they’re at home. The Bills haven’t covered a spread in 4 weeks, make it 5 with this one. Bengals -2, lock it up!
Two bonus picks I really like- but not enough to provide the full write up. Cincinnatti Bearcats +3.5 against the Knights. USC +3.5 home against the Huskies.
Photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images