The culmination of a week’s worth of work lands us right here, right now. Stone Cold Locks of the Week, I’ve been waiting for the drop off to come, it hasn’t, and I think we can just safely assume its smooooth sailing from here. KIDDING. You can’t assume anything in sports betting, but, my track record speaks for itself this year.
42-18-2 on the season. Let’s keep this momentum flowing in the right direction. Shall we?
Tulane (-1.5) vs UCF- Love my Knights, but I can’t back them here. Tulane has been a wagon this year, covering 8 of their 9 games, and each of their last 5. And its not like they haven’t been playing real competition, Tulane has played the 15th toughest schedule in the nation. Their QB Michael Pratt is super efficient, 14 TD’s, just 4 picks, and one of their strengths is their ability to consistently move the chains. I’ve just seen this Knights team struggle with consistency, and these last 2 games have been great, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Plumlee comes back, and wrecks that consistency. He has not been a good QB on the road this season, but Malzahn probably feels compelled to give him his job back. This one just screams Tulane’s biggest win in decades. Lock it up.
TCU (+7.5) @ Texas- I can’t figure this one out. That’s usually a sign that you’re stepping in it, but I’ll go ahead and take the bait. TCU is the 4th ranked team in the nation, and Texas comes in @ 18th. That means nothing for betting purposes, but it doesn’t make any sense why TCU would be getting this little amount of respect in the betting market. I’ve watched this team, they can flat out score, and Texas has talent, but they’re far from perfect. Make no mistake about it, TCU’s defense can’t stop anyone, but their offense will keep them in it, number is way to big, take TCU – lock it up.
Browns (+3.5) @ Phins- Going back to the well against my Phins. Everyone wants to bet my Dolphins now, and I love to see it. But what they’re missing is the fact that all the Dolphins do is play in close games. Each of their last 4 wins have been 1 score games. Eventually that’s going to come back to bite them, and it’ll most likely happen when they face a team that can run the ball really well, since that’s their biggest weakness on defense. In comes a Browns team, who probably does that better than anyone. Nick Chubb walks into Hard Rock stadium with 100 yards on the ground, and he’ll just add to it from there. Bad spot for the Phins returning home after a 2 game road trip. I’ll back the Brownies, lock it up!
Steelers (+2.5) vs New Orleans- I’m all the way out on the Saints. This team is terrible and they’re even worse on the road. The Saints are 0-3 ATS when outside of New Orleans. And Mike Tomlin, off a bye, as a home dog…very profitable endeavor. Tomlin is 16-3-3 as a home underdog in his career. Plus, we could be seeing the return of TJ Watt, which is obviously a game-changer. Acrisure Stadium is gonna be rocking, give me the Steelers +2.5. Lock it up!
Bears (-2.5) vs Lions- Backed the Bears last week, going back to the well here. Justin Fields has turned a major corner, he is playing with an unreal level of confidence and I expect that to continue this weekend as he goes back home and takes on a Lions team that has the 29th ranked defense in the NFL. Also, fading the Lions when possible, always a good call. Fading them off a win, even better. Jared Goff is 0-2 SU for the Lions after snatching a victory. I’ll take the Bears -2.5, lock it up!
Seahawks (+2.5) vs Bucs- Bet of the week. Moving all my chips into the middle of the table for this one. I guess the market hasn’t caught up to the fact that the Seahawks are really good this year. Answer me this…where do the Bucs have an advantage in this game? Home field? Nope. In fact, Seattle has an oddly large amount of fans in Germany. Are they a better passing team? Nope, Seattle ranks 8 spots higher. Rushing? Nope. Bucs rank dead last. Turnover differential, Seattle. Coaching, Seattle. Explosive plays, Seattle. And the Seahawks have been a top 10 defense over the past 4 weeks. This line reeks of Tom Brady love, and I’m happy to cash in because of it. Seattle +2.5, lock it up.
Picks I like- Vikings (+3.5), Cardinals (+1.5), Broncos (+3), Packers (+5), Chargers (+7), Jags (+9.5), FSU (-7), LSU (-3.5)
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