Feeling lucky?! Me too, let's make some money...
First, let’s review how I did last week: (spoiler alert, awful)
1-3 last week
10-11 on the season
Getting close to /.500 / here we go!
Mizzou (+13) @ #10 Florida
oI just can’t get behind this Gator team anymore, they looked great in week 1 against Ole Miss, failed to cover in week 2 against South Carolina, and then could not stop Texas A&M for 2 straight quarters…now they’ve had 2 weeks off, 1 of those not on a practice field…too many question marks, and it’s not like Mizzou isn’t decent. 2 straight wins for the Tigers, they put up 45 on LSU, and they gave Bama their best game of the season (38-19). Tigers +13, take it to the bank.
Steelers @ Ravens (-3.5)
oFollow the money! This one opened at 5.5 and its been bet down to 3.5, public dollars love the Steelers. Pittsburgh is unbeaten, but they are not unbeatable. And they haven’t truly been tested much either, in fact, their first 4 wins were against teams that have a grand total of 6 wins. Big win against Tennessee last week, but Baltimore has had a week to get ready for this one, and all they did in preparation is add Yannick Ngakoue, who comes with 5 sacks on the season. The Ravens slow down the Steelers pass attack and run over their stout run defense. Ravens fly and cover the spread like Tupperware.
49ers (+3) @ Seahawks
oThis is a gut play. SF seems to be rounding the corner, and I think last week, Seattle was dealt a blow of reality. Yes, they have Wilson, and they’ll win a bunch of games, but this comes down to match ups, and I think the 49ers, who come in feeling confident after a win @ Gillette, will out muscle the Seahawks, and get after Russell Wilson. Predicting a big game for Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle, as they carve through the Seattle D like a Thanksgiving Turkey. SF +3 for the win.
Jets (+20) @ KC
oThis one will not be easy to stomach. I understand that but I’m just playing the number and closing my eyes. 4 distinct things I don’t like about the Chiefs side here. 1) Bad teams are never as bad as you think they are in the NFL, and perception on the Jets is at an all-time low. 2) Good teams who have a lot to play for later in the season tend to let their foot off the gas in the NFL when they’re up by a lot late, making a backdoor cover very possible. 3) The public is backing KC at a rate of 60%, I expect that number will go up as we get closer to kickoff, always be suspicious of a public % that rises above the threshold of 60, that usually means Vegas is coming to steal your money. 4) History is actually on the side of the Jets. Over the last 10 years, we have seen a spread of 19 or more in the NFL just 5 times. The underdog is 3-2. Take the Jets and look away.